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Survival of Original Guns

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There has been talk on the Forum concerning the survival (or lack thereof) of original guns.
The only published information on survival rates that I have seen is in Albaugh's "Confederate Handguns" and Winter's "US Naval Handguns". Based on a few types with reasonably accurately known production numbers and evidence of surviving examples (based largely on published sales ads appearing over a period of 20 years in Flayderman, Gun Report, Historical Arms, etc, the estimates of 4.1 % and 4.6 % were calculated for arms made before the 1850s. (Much higher rates after that period).
Based on the number of transactions at shows and between private parties and the number of pieces held in museums & never appearing on the market, I think that the 4.1-4.6% number may be a bit low - perhaps an increase to an even 5 % would be reasonable. I am very aware that this is an average number as for a number of reasons, an individual type or model may survive in numbers well above or below the "norm" - (a calvary weapon dropped is easily picked up, a sea service 'splash' is likely gone forever).
Does anyone know of other studies regarding the probability of survival?
 
Interesting question. And, probably an impossibility to answer.
Generally, the finer guns like presentation grade survive for many generations. They have value and, usually, an important family history. Plain, or working mans, guns were tools with little value. Good examples of those guns are harder to find.
 
As the firearms progressed to self contained rounds MLR's were put aside often un oiled as there was little or no desire to bring them back. Add to this the number of military rifles that were cut off for farm use and you have a pretty small reserve of them left in good shape and as issue condition. The high end guns were often kept in much better condition.


Geo. T.
 
Rifleman1776 said:
Interesting question. And, probably an impossibility to answer.
Generally, the finer guns like presentation grade survive for many generations. They have value and, usually, an important family history. Plain, or working mans, guns were tools with little value. Good examples of those guns are harder to find.

I used to believe the same and have even made the same statement years ago here on the forum. After many years of study I have concluded along with many who research these old firearms, that the myth of the plain 18th Century gun being used up is just that, a myth. I think part of what drives that myth is modern reenacting and contemporary shooting enthusiasts.

Like all myths there is a small ring of truth but further investigation reveals it's not quite as true as it might seem.

The $1000 plus dollar price difference is a heck of incentive justifying the "plain gun" pretty much ignoring the historical record. So a modern shooter or reenactor is financially driven to justify their plain "Early Lancaster" built plain like a "Shaker era" 1820s-30s Tennessee Mountain rifle as a Colonial made rifle just like Daniel carried.

This subject is so complex it boggles the mind. One simply cannot summarize it in a few lines on an internet forum.

Firstly there is culture. In the Colonial era America was more like Europe with it's trade guilds and certain standards of style. Baroque and later Rococo give way to the plainer conservative styles of the 19th Century. You see this in dress. Out went the wig, ruffled shirt, breeches, buckle shoe and tricorn for men in favor of trousers, bootees tied with string, topper and the styles of the Empire era. For women fine gowns and restrictive stays and corsets were out in favor of form fitting and very revealing Empire dresses copying the style of the Greek Goddess. Even in furniture the heavy decoration gives way to a plainer style. The Great Awakening, Age of Enlightenment, The American an French Revolutions all played a part in this change of culture. In England laws were passed to prevent gentleman from carrying swords. This is a sign that the age of noble and serf has given way to the age of the common man, at least for appearances sake.

The super fine rifles of the Golden Age 1780-1825 seem to contradict this trend. This is easily explained. These makers of fine Golden Age rifles were apprentices during the Colonial era. These masters were now in settled areas and had to compete with the "farmer gunsmith" and early factory made guns and parts from the Industrial Revolution. So they were free to create and build on the skills they learned during the Colonial era. So the early 19th Century was not only the era for the super fine longrifle it is also the era of the plain Schmimmel and Southern mountain farmer gunsmith rifle. Many of whom were quite good.

As for survival rate, basically "One man's treasure is another man's trash." The remains of a fine Golden Age longrifle made by one of the masters was found in a fire wood bin 60 years ago. Many fine old rifles have been found as flea market fodder. The fine GA made Higgins "Gamecock Rifle" of circa 1820 comes to mind. It was found at a road side Flea Market around 1970.

The Filson Club in Kentucky paid an unknown sum for a 19th Century Boone Rifle. This rifle allegedly came from a widow woman in Alabama. It has BooN scraped on the side. Photos show that is is a very plain Southern Mountain possibly NC or West Virginia made of circa 1810-30. Also, Daniel Boone could spell his name. Today you can buy an original West Virginia rifle for less, sometimes much less, than the modern gunsmith made replica of the same style.

Collecting drives the market too and may not reflect the historical record. Many guns have been modified and down right faked. Many a percussion has been reconverted to flint that never was flint to begin with. Many types like Southern Mountains have been ignored by collectors until recently. Yet they are out there.

About a month ago I almost bid on an old Ketland Fowler. This gun may have dated to about 1800 or so. I could have bought the whole gun for little more than the price of a Chambers Ketland lock. The truth is there is not much collector interest in old smoothbores. How many historical guns are still out there? How many will show up as the smoothbore or trade gun craze becomes more widespread.

Not long ago it was thought no type G trade guns existed except as relics. A recent Muzzleloder article showed a couple of nearly intact guns. One had been converted to percussion. How many more will show up as these guns gain collector interest.

In closing I have no idea of the survival ratio. One thing that seems pretty clear is that the survival rate pretty much matches the original production rate. That's why so few very plain 18th century rifles exist. Simply put they were not that many made, they were the exception to the rule.
 
54ball said:
.................. In closing I have no idea of the survival ratio. One thing that seems pretty clear is that the survival rate pretty much matches the original production rate. That's why so few very plain 18th century rifles exist. Simply put they were not that many made, they were the exception to the rule.



An excellent post from start to finish, with well thought out, accurate statements. I have to agree. :applause:
 
.................. In closing I have no idea of the survival ratio. One thing that seems pretty clear is that the survival rate pretty much matches the original production rate. That's why so few very plain 18th century rifles exist. Simply put they were not that many made, they were the exception to the rule.

I'm not sure such a conclusion may be drawn past the theoretical level. We have such a small sample of "surviving" guns compared to the written records that show us how many were sold. Tough to tell what was the "norm". It may in fact be true, but to coin an example from archaeology (albeit paraphrased)..., "The small sample that we have is akin to taking one city bus at random, and trying to describe the full extent of the diversity of New York City from the occupants of that bus." With the right sample, a representative, wide sample, you could succeed, but with a different sample, you could be woefully inaccurate... and there is no way to tell...

LD
 
A very interesting dissertation. But, unfortunately, I believe your conclusions are off the mark. I first formed my conclusion, literally, sitting around a campfire at Friendship listenting to some serious collectors and builders discussing this very subject. Most regretted the lack of plain working rifles for research. Most have been lost to time and neglect. Those that did survice often were treated poorly. I recall as a youngster, there was a chain of sporting goods stores in the Chicago area that had barrels of old ml rifles for sale. They had $5.00; $10.00 and $15.00 barrels. To a 5 to 10 year old kid even $5.00 was an unreachable fortune. Besides, what would one do with an old, broken, ml rifle? I bought my first .22 at age 8 for $3.00. Still, today, in rural America some old, neglected rifles still turn up, usually in basements or barns.
 
I've formed the same opinion as this thread. I gave up trying to buy an antique revolver. I was amazed at the number of guns listed on these auction sites. Far too many to be real. The reluctance to provide any form of provenance confirmed it for me. A pristine ordinary gun supposedly used un the Civil War is highly unlikely. Turning a $200 gun into a $2000 one with no chance of ever being prosecuted is very alluring. I think there is a very lucrative trade in fake antique guns.
 
Fine (read expensive) guns are king of like old cars. You are more apt to find a once expensive Packard convertible than a $400 Chevrolet sedan (original, not built from a dozen parts cars). Most gums were working tools. Same as other tools, when the new, easier to use replacement came along, out they went, one way or another.
 
I have a rifle barrel that I found near an old homestead while deer hunting in the late 1970s. The barrel is so rusted and pitted that you can barely tell it is octagonal. It has the remains of a under rib and you can see the drum location. The tang had been cut and beat smooth and it had been obviously used as a pry bar/jack handle. I would guess the caliber at around 40. I found this thing laying beside a huge oak tree. I had to look very hard to tell it was a rifle barrel and actually walked away from it. After a second thought I went back and picked it up. My point is that I wonder how many rifles had a similar fate. That old rifle at the time was worth more as a pry bar than an old rifle. :idunno:
 
When rapidly outclassed machinery is used in corrosive service conditions it doesn't have a good chance of being preserved from generation to generation. Not then. Not now. In any service.
 
As I said this is a very complex subject.

Not to get too philosophical, but historical research reminds me of, "Court World". Anyone who has been to court knows that the the first casualty is reality. Now the overall truth may come out, but the real reality, is a lot of the time; lost in the process. It all can be very subjective.

One has to ask just who was a 18th Century " working man"? Another question is, what is a "plain" 18th century gun or rifle?

I would love to know exactly what the Overthemountainmen carried at Kings Mountain, Cowpens, and Guilford Courthouse. Did it have a grease hole? Was it Carolina made?

The best guess would be to trace the path of migration and base the rifle on surviving rifles built along those areas of migration.

About the plain rifle, It's my opinion, at this time, that a plain rifle of the 1770s should have at minimum, a swamped, tapered octagon, or tapered octagon to round barrel, Germanic style or English made lock depending on region,cast brass hardware, wood or simple brass two piece box, medium to plain grade maple stock with carved forestock moulding,carved lock panel moulding, cheek piece moulding and simple Rococo design behind the cheek, the side plate and brass box would need some simple engraving. This minimum of decoration would most likely be quick work by the gunsmith as most of the work or expense was in the barrel. Culturally a certain amount of decoration was expected in my opinion. Even the Brown Bess had beavertail lock panels and carving behind the breech.

A good number of rifles survive that match that description. Now there are a few that may be plainer but as said it's my opinion that they are the exception to the rule.

I first formed my conclusion, literally, sitting around a campfire at Friendship listenting to some serious collectors and builders discussing this very subject.

I'm a Gillespie Rifle fan and have studied them pretty heavy for years. A descendant of the family, researcher and collector of these rifles has searched for years for a pre-1810 Gillespie rifle. He has documents that show John Gillespie listed as a Gunsmith while he was in the 96 District of SC in the early 1780s. A 1780s SC made Gillespie rifle would be like the Holy Grail. Yet all surviving rifles date to 1810 and later. John Gillespie's Forge sight has been found near a Creek still called Boring Branch to this day.
Why do so many post 1810 Gillespies survive and before that, none have been found? The uncomfortable truth may be, that simply none were made before 1810. Even though John was listed a Gunsmith dating to the 1780s in reality he may have been a barrel maker and never actually built rifles at least in any number. This could mean that his sons were the first makers of the Gillespie Rifle. Until one surfaces that hypothesis is as plausible as any other despite how much we want one to exist.
 
This is just a thought but, I remember my folks talk about the iron and steel drives during WWII
where communities gathered any and all unused metal and shipped it off for the war effort.

How many "usless old muzzle loaders" were melted down to build tanks, planes and ships?
 
A lot I'm guessing from a photo I saw in either National Geographic or The History Channel magazine years ago. The photo showed all types of old firearms and blacksmith tools, anvils and such, piled up waiting to be smelted down for the war effort. Broke my heart to see that.
 
54mountain said:
This is just a thought but, I remember my folks talk about the iron and steel drives during WWII
where communities gathered any and all unused metal and shipped it off for the war effort.

How many "usless old muzzle loaders" were melted down to build tanks, planes and ships?

I`ll bet lot`s. I remember my dad saying that he gave an old double shotgun to such a "junk man" during WWII because it had twist steel barrels and wasn`t considered safe to shoot anymore.
 
Now that you mention it I recall that photo, I believe it was in National Geographic.

In the forties cartridge rifles had been around long enough that muzzle loaders were just so much junk for most people, and they weren't so far gone to consider them collectable.
 
That was my point! Our grandfathers never saw the need to go back to old Betsy! I am glad that we reversed that trend!

Geo. T.
 
Pre Civil War Southern guns and rifles are rare especially from the deep South states like GA,SC AL and Mississippi. Who knows how many guns and rifles, many that were very historical that were lost during that decade of War and Reconstruction.
 
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