Rifleman1776 said:
Interesting question. And, probably an impossibility to answer.
Generally, the finer guns like presentation grade survive for many generations. They have value and, usually, an important family history. Plain, or working mans, guns were tools with little value. Good examples of those guns are harder to find.
I used to believe the same and have even made the same statement years ago here on the forum. After many years of study I have concluded along with many who research these old firearms, that the myth of the plain 18th Century gun being used up is just that, a myth. I think part of what drives that myth is modern reenacting and contemporary shooting enthusiasts.
Like all myths there is a small ring of truth but further investigation reveals it's not quite as true as it might seem.
The $1000 plus dollar price difference is a heck of incentive justifying the "plain gun" pretty much ignoring the historical record. So a modern shooter or reenactor is financially driven to justify their plain "Early Lancaster" built plain like a "Shaker era" 1820s-30s Tennessee Mountain rifle as a Colonial made rifle just like Daniel carried.
This subject is so complex it boggles the mind. One simply cannot summarize it in a few lines on an internet forum.
Firstly there is culture. In the Colonial era America was more like Europe with it's trade guilds and certain standards of style. Baroque and later Rococo give way to the plainer conservative styles of the 19th Century. You see this in dress. Out went the wig, ruffled shirt, breeches, buckle shoe and tricorn for men in favor of trousers, bootees tied with string, topper and the styles of the Empire era. For women fine gowns and restrictive stays and corsets were out in favor of form fitting and very revealing Empire dresses copying the style of the Greek Goddess. Even in furniture the heavy decoration gives way to a plainer style. The Great Awakening, Age of Enlightenment, The American an French Revolutions all played a part in this change of culture. In England laws were passed to prevent gentleman from carrying swords. This is a sign that the age of noble and serf has given way to the age of the common man, at least for appearances sake.
The super fine rifles of the Golden Age 1780-1825 seem to contradict this trend. This is easily explained. These makers of fine Golden Age rifles were apprentices during the Colonial era. These masters were now in settled areas and had to compete with the "farmer gunsmith" and early factory made guns and parts from the Industrial Revolution. So they were free to create and build on the skills they learned during the Colonial era. So the early 19th Century was not only the era for the super fine longrifle it is also the era of the plain Schmimmel and Southern mountain farmer gunsmith rifle. Many of whom were quite good.
As for survival rate, basically "One man's treasure is another man's trash." The remains of a fine Golden Age longrifle made by one of the masters was found in a fire wood bin 60 years ago. Many fine old rifles have been found as flea market fodder. The fine GA made Higgins "Gamecock Rifle" of circa 1820 comes to mind. It was found at a road side Flea Market around 1970.
The Filson Club in Kentucky paid an unknown sum for a 19th Century Boone Rifle. This rifle allegedly came from a widow woman in Alabama. It has BooN scraped on the side. Photos show that is is a very plain Southern Mountain possibly NC or West Virginia made of circa 1810-30. Also, Daniel Boone could spell his name. Today you can buy an original West Virginia rifle for less, sometimes much less, than the modern gunsmith made replica of the same style.
Collecting drives the market too and may not reflect the historical record. Many guns have been modified and down right faked. Many a percussion has been reconverted to flint that never was flint to begin with. Many types like Southern Mountains have been ignored by collectors until recently. Yet they are out there.
About a month ago I almost bid on an old Ketland Fowler. This gun may have dated to about 1800 or so. I could have bought the whole gun for little more than the price of a Chambers Ketland lock. The truth is there is not much collector interest in old smoothbores. How many historical guns are still out there? How many will show up as the smoothbore or trade gun craze becomes more widespread.
Not long ago it was thought no type G trade guns existed except as relics. A recent Muzzleloder article showed a couple of nearly intact guns. One had been converted to percussion. How many more will show up as these guns gain collector interest.
In closing I have no idea of the survival ratio. One thing that seems pretty clear is that the survival rate pretty much matches the original production rate. That's why so few very plain 18th century rifles exist. Simply put they were not that many made, they were the exception to the rule.