Will the bottom fall out of the custom build business?

[manbat]

I've never been interested in purchasing a custom rifle/musket mostly because they don't pass my personal cost/value/enjoyment scale threshold. When I buy expensive arms they are generally historic or investments. However, I can appreciate true craftsmanship when I see it and I find no fault in what others do with their money based on their own personal value scale. But when I read through the various opinions on this forum and others about the future state of the hobby, I wonder whether the value of an expensive custom rifle/musket is holding up, or will hold up over time. I'm not referring to Gusler from scratch builds or the like, but to the custom longarms from builders that source and use basically the same high-quality locks and barrels that are available to all of them and sell those $3K/$4K/$5k+ flintlocks. Seems to me that type of custom build that is valued primarily on its craftsmanship will not have much of a future market to maintain that value. Especially, as more and more come to market.

For those who have an interest and buy or have sold those types of custom longarms, have you seen any impacts in the resale or purchase prices over the last few years? Are prices relatively stable and fewer of the best builders are actually doing business? Is it the complete opposite, with market, value, and, prices increasing? Or, are there other dynamics at play?

 

[William Sublette]

What????

 

[Uncle Miltie]

Younger generations have no interest in traditional muzzleloaders, and the customer base will eventually dry up.

 

[Matt85]

I recently tried to have someone build a Rifle Shoppe pistol and was quoted $2000+ by a couple builders. This was a simple military flintlock with no chance the pistol would ever actually be worth $2700 (kit was $700), so I ended up passing.

 

[Nazgul58]

Younger generations have no interest in traditional muzzleloaders, and the customer base will eventually dry up.

It is our fault if it dies. Take someone shooting, be nice, show them the fun.

Don

 

[rich pierce]

Popular builders still have 2-3 years waiting times. There’s a few young guys coming up who are really doing nice work and cranking them out. Who knows what the world will be like in 20 years?

Tastes and interests change. I can buy antique tools and furniture now for less than I could in the 1980s. Ok by me.

 

[French Colonial]

I would like to think that the value would still be there, I recently sold my copy of the John Schreit rifle for what I had in it (could not shoot it any more due to the muzzle weight), but I knew a guy who wanted it,

But when I had others built I wanted them enough that I never really cared if they held their value or not, I was building them FOR ME. I had my Jaeger built many moons ago before Jaegers were cool and I care not whether it holds its value or not,,,, Its MY gun.

 

[Uncle Miltie]

It is our fault if it dies. Take someone shooting, be nice, show them the fun.

Don

We've all tried this, been doing it for years. Muzzleloading is not the only area to experience this decline.

 

[BruceHH]

I am finding there is still a very strong demand for custom rifles right now. Having said that, I am taking a break from building due to a few reasons. Number one is that the cost of components has risen to a point where I fear the basic build is going to be beyond what a shooter/hunter is willing to pay, and those buyers are my market. Number two is because quality components are tending to be scarce right now and I am seeing some quality control issues that need to be ironed out.

I am pleased by the influx of the kit products being produced by Jim Kibler and I do believe they are having an impact on the casual or relatively new builder. That is not a negative as I see it bringing more interest into our sport and it gives people the chance to have a role in producing their rifle. I do have an issue though with kit builders referring to themselves as builders. Assemblers would seem to be a more correct term.

I think we will see a steady need for quality built arms, especially those that require a high degree of skill in constructing custom parts and things such as carving and inlay work.

I think a lack of shooting facilities, a steady reliable source of primers/flints and powder is going to be a real factor in determining our sports future.

Lastly, I think we do have an issue with the younger generation not gravitating to black powder firearms. They have been raised in a time where they can buy instant gratification and to be honest a Throw Away society. I believe all skills relating to hand crafting will suffer to some degree in the future.

 

[64Springer]

My sons, nieces and nephews can't even spell the word Firearm.

The younger generation has no interest in guns.

When I die, that's it.

Hello Captain Crunch.

 

[Sean E Bug]

when people buy custom guns they do it because they want something specific to them. They want a gun that is suitable to their taste and needs and I doubt resail value is a concern. I would be willing to bet most would prefer to hand down the rifle than to sell it when the time comes.

 

[smo]

My sons, nieces and nephews can't even spell the word Firearm.

The younger generation has no interest in guns.

When I die, that's it.

Hello Captain Crunch.

Unless they take them too a school shooting

 

[oldwood]

35% of kids today , don't have enough initiative to get a job for money for a driver's licence , and gas. Mommy and Daddy will have to pony up cash to push the lazy turds out the door to find a job.........THIRTY FIVE % They will starve , before they realize anything about work ,and pay. Too many govt. subsidized "sperm donor" kids out there , eating up real folks resources , that can be used for custom M/l parts and builds. I.m preaching to the choir here. Y'all can figure this stuff out.

 

[chorizo]

I will provide a parallel example that we need to look at and heed. 35/40 years ago, Spanish SxS shotgun makers in the Basque Country were facing a "volume" issue. No longer was the world and in particular America buying SxS shotguns, even of the "mass" produced quality as everyone want semi-autos that could shoot steel. They were also facing a crisis in artisans building those guns...quite simply, nobody wanted to do the apprenticeship time and low pay to learn how to make those guns as even the mass produced required hand work.

The conclusion was made by most that mass production was no longer practical, so they focused on the medium to higher end custom guns as they had those artisans working and producing them already, there was a higher profit margin per gun and lower operating costs as they could rent out factory space by no longer producing large amounts of consumer grade guns. Life was good and they made lots of money and were years behind on delivery.

But two things happened......the market, it seemed, had a saturation point for high end guns. Once you had a couple, you didn't buy more and fewer people were interested in dropping a couple of thousand dollars on a gun. The other thing that happened is without mass production, there was no ready "school" or apprenticeships to replace the now aging workforce of artisans.

Fast forward to the late 1990s and early 2000s. The makers realized that there was nobody to replace their workers, so they tried to start a school in Eibar to teach the art. It fell flat. Workers could make 2 to 3 times that driving truck.

Demand was drying up, workers were retiring with no one to take their place and one by one the major gun makers closed up shop until now only 2 or 3 remain producing small quantities in what was a community of 20/25 producing a several 10's of thousands of guns in their prime.

So production fell onto the custom, small shop makers. Prices went up, wait times increased...but not enough to pay the wages of an apprentice. Besides, people were paying for a top end gun, not lower end apprentice work. So no one was learning the skills needed to become a custom maker. Then those custom makers started closing shop...old, tired and retired.

Now in Spain, it is almost impossible to find someone to make you a shotgun...most spend their time on high end Express guns that they can get $25,000 to $40,000 per gun or highly engraved and customized SxS shotguns that fetch $10,000 to $15,000. A rich and super-rich man's sport.

The only thing that remains of a once vibrant gun making industry in Eiber, Spain where dozens of dozens of makers were is a museum. Arms Industry Museum

As custom makers retire, few will come aboard to fill their shoes...find a maker and rarely will you find an apprentice in their shop. When they are done, they are REALLY done. Demand will further dry up as who wants to wait 3 years for a $3,000 gun, especially when those with that kind of disposable income are usually in the senior years of their life.

So there you have it. It has happened before in a gun industry and it is happening now here. Mass production of guns (or importation thereof) is gone...T/C..gone Lyman...done with ML....major retailers using their name for a brand...no longer happening....

Wait times 2-3 years at a high cost for a custom gun. Find me one apprentice and I will find you 5 makers without one.

Time will not be our friend on this.

 

[springfield art]

Younger generations have no interest in traditional muzzleloaders, and the customer base will eventually dry up.

I was thinking the same thing. Take the model train hobby for instance: go to a big Train Extravaganza, and the guys propelling it are all much older fellows. The falling off of interest in "hobbies" in general by the youngsters, plus the current "anti-gun" movement will take it's toll. I do enjoy seeing the crowds at the big modern gun shows, such as at Oaks, PA; families, kids, young & old, all into the 'scene'.

 

[sussexmuzllodr]

Just speaking for myself. The Hobby decline that has affected everyone from Manufacturer,s right down to the individual hobbyist. On the positive side it has made me more self reliant on making some of the stuff like small parts. (springs&such} to keep things going. A couple of days ago I made a small smelter like many folks have done. Why? Because everyone needs a small supply of aluminum and brass on hand....lol.....I used to wonder why that particular old guy had so much stuff laying around......now...I understand. When i go under someone is going to have to pick through it......

 

[sussexmuzllodr]

I will provide a parallel example that we need to look at and heed. 35/40 years ago, Spanish SxS shotgun makers in the Basque Country were facing a "volume" issue. No longer was the world and in particular America buying SxS shotguns, even of the "mass" produced quality. They were also facing a crisis in artisans building those guns...quite simply, nobody wanted to do the apprenticeship time and low pay to learn how to make those guns as even the mass produced required hand work.

The conclusion was made by most that mass production was no longer practical, so they focused on the medium to higher end custom guns as they had those artisans working and producing them already, there was a higher profit margin per gun and lower operating costs as they could rent out factory space by no longer producing large amounts of consumer grade guns. Life was good and they made lots of money and were years behind on delivery.

But two things happened......the market, it seemed, had a saturation point for high end guns. Once you had a couple, you didn't buy more and fewer people were interested in dropping a couple of thousand dollars on a gun. The other thing that happened is without mass production, there was no ready "school" or apprenticeships to replace the now aging workforce of artisans.

Fast forward to the late 1990s and early 2000s. The makers realized that there was nobody to replace their workers, so they tried to start a school in Eibar to teach the art. It fell flat. Workers could make 2 to 3 times that driving truck.

Demand was drying up, workers were retiring with no one to take their place and one by one the major gun makers closed up shop until now only 2 or 3 remain producing small quantities in what was a community of 20/25 producing a several 10's of thousands of guns in their prime.

As custom makers retire, few will come aboard to fill their shoes...find a maker and rarely will you find an apprentice in their shop. When they are done, they are REALLY done. Demand will further dry up as who wants to wait 3 years for a $3,000 gun, especially when those with that kind of disposable income are usually in the senior years of their life.

So there you have it. It has happened before in a gun industry and it is happening now here. Mass production of guns (or importation thereof) is gone...T/C..gone Lyman...done with ML....major retailers using their name for a brand...no longer happening....

Wait times 2-3 years at a high cost for a custom gun. Find me one apprentice and I will find you 5 makers without one.

Time will not be our friend on this.

Very well put.

 

[springfield art]

Forgive me for touting this here again, but I wish some savvy businessman from India would form a craft/marketing guild amongst the Indian mfgrs. to upgrade their guns, not that they're not pretty good now for the money. (Wouldn't we all like to know the mark-up that the importers/sellers have? For that matter, I wonder how many factories over there are turning out our muzzleloaders? Would love to see a video of their factory floors in action. Any u-tube material on that subject? The currency ratio must be pretty high, the dollar vs. the rupee. The workers over there don't expect high wages like over here.

 

[springfield art]

35% of kids today , don't have enough initiative to get a job for money for a driver's licence , and gas. Mommy and Daddy will have to pony up cash to push the lazy turds out the door to find a job.........THIRTY FIVE % They will starve , before they realize anything about work ,and pay. Too many govt. subsidized "sperm donor" kids out there , eating up real folks resources , that can be used for custom M/l parts and builds. I.m preaching to the choir here. Y'all can figure this stuff out.

I got a chuckle out of the term, "lazy turds"

 

[springfield art]

when people buy custom guns they do it because they want something specific to them. They want a gun that is suitable to their taste and needs and I doubt resail value is a concern. I would be willing to bet most would prefer to hand down the rifle than to sell it when the time comes.

You are correct, sir, as Ed McMahon used to say.